Monday, January 31, 2011
Tectonic shifts in Middle-east
If elections are conducted now in Egypt, It will be the Islamic Brotherhood that will be forming the government , the Security Implications for Israel will be Nightmarish. Hamas in Gaza could become as well-armed as Hizbollah in Lebanon if the new Egyptian govt throws open its borders with Gaza. This may "tempt" Israel to Occupy "Sinai" peninsula in a Swift Campaign because It is a largely Demilitarized Zone consisting mainly of few hundred peace keepers from the MUF and few hundred egyptian forces deployed there. With Hizbollah forming the govt in Lebanon the encirclement of Israel will be complete and it could further encourage Hostile Arab powers to adopt a belligerent Posture towards Isreal in Future when Iran acquires Nuclear capability because they may feel shielded by the Umbrella of Iranian Nuclear Detterence against Israel. The situation will be further complicated If Jordan gets destabilised because of an already weak Monarchy. The encirclement of Israel will be complete and it will be only a Matter of time before the map of Israel becomes an anomoly in Middle-east.
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